Welcome to the first of (hopefully) many accurate fantasy football forecasts. Though the season is a good two months away, it's never too early to start prepping for your drafts. I'll start by doing a position-by-position Top 10, then possibly do some forecasts during the season as well. Chances are good that any positional forecasts will be revised before the start of the season, what with preseason injuries, moronic coaches, depth chart shakeups, and my mood swings/hunches.
Without further ado, counting down from 10, the top RBs (aka the only position that truly matters in fantasy football).
10. Edgerrin James - If any of you want to pick him as one of the Top 5 RBs, be my guest. I loved having the Edge on my team last year after hearing naysayers say he wasn't going to have a great season, but it was easy pickings as anyone with a brain knew Peyton wasn't going to throw damn near 50 TDs again - the TDs had to go somewhere, and to Edge they went, as he had 14 total. This year, you're dreaming if you expect anywhere near 1800 total yards and 14 TDs. Aside from the Cards line issus (it should be improved this year for a multitude of reasons), both Edge and Brenda's Husband are getting up there in age. Best case scenario for Edge: 1250 rush yards, 250 rec yards, 10 TD.
9. Willis McGahee - I'm not a fan of him, his QB (Kelly f-ing Holcomb??), or his team, but the man is a bit of a beast. I expect similar rush yards as last year (1200 or so) along with a TD total from 2004 (13).
8. Dominic Rhodes - The first crapshoot, as his status is still an unknown, what with a 1st round pick competing for the job. That said, the more established Rhodes should win the job and get a bulk of the touches, most notably the goal line touches, as he vultured from James in the past (4 TDs last year). I see a somewhat disappointing yardage total, but the sky's the limit for TDs.
7. Clinton Portis - I'm slowly becoming a big fan of Portis, at least in terms of the fantasy world. While his TDs seem to come in spurts (0 in the first 6 games last season, yet 12 total), he's a pretty consistent yardage machine, and consistency is a big thing for me, especially from the RB position. Even with a crappy QB (Brunell), he's a contender for 1600 yards - the TDs, however, are a crapshoot.
6. Stephen Jackson - Go ahead and laugh. I might laugh my way to a title if Jax slips to me in the late 2nd round or later. Now that moron Martz is gone, we may finally see what Jax is capable of if fed the ball consistently. While he certainly showed the potential to disappoint last year (12 rushes...for 6 yards...against the Cards?!?!), his potential for greatness is even bigger. Consider: he only got 20 or more rushes in a game 3 times last season, and he scored in all three and went for a combined 386 yards (129 avg). I see more of that in 2006. Bonus: Faulk may retire any day now.
5. Tiki Barber - I have trouble ranking him this high, as I am a constant doubter of his, and always will have to be proven wrong. If faced with a situation where my top 4 RBs were already taken, I probably wouldn't take Tiki; however, I know that's illogical and borderline dumb. So be it. Despite having some good weapons around him, this has to be the year that Tiki slows down. He's getting old, he has a lot of miles, and he's undersized. I don't like that combo - but please, be my guest and take him.
4. Rudi Johnson - Another guy in the mold of Portis in terms of production, but within higher TUP (or something), and I think he's younger than Portis to boot. Throw in the fact that he plays for an offensive juggernaut (pending Palmer's healthy return), and he could be gold. Only other downside was Chris Perry's good showing last season, which may reduce Rudi's touches.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson - Everyone calls him LT, but I've always preferred LaDaTo (pronounced La Day Toe). We're getting into "no-brainer" territory here. Tomlinson is a beast on the ground, via catch and even via pass (3 passing TDs last year?? Gimme a break.). Barring injury, his ceiling is limitless despite a change in QB. Anything less than 1400 rush yards and 15 TDs is a disappointment.
2. Shaun Alexander - How he manages to score that many TDs baffles me, what with Seattle's pretty bad receiving corps. Granted, they got rid of K-Ro, but still... Somehow, Alexander will manage to get 1600 rush yards and 18 or so TDs again, so you can't turn him down, but I get a bad feeling about him.
1. Larry Johnson - As if there's any doubt. Let's recap: not a starter until (what) week 7, and he still gets 1750 rush yards, 343 rec yards and 21 TDs. Only an idiot wouldn't take him with the 1st pick in the draft.
Last edited by Fletch
on 28 Jul 2006, 16:00, edited 1 time in total.