Fantasy FB Forecast

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Fantasy FB Forecast

Postby Fletch » 28 Jun 2006, 15:32

Welcome to the first of (hopefully) many accurate fantasy football forecasts. Though the season is a good two months away, it's never too early to start prepping for your drafts. I'll start by doing a position-by-position Top 10, then possibly do some forecasts during the season as well. Chances are good that any positional forecasts will be revised before the start of the season, what with preseason injuries, moronic coaches, depth chart shakeups, and my mood swings/hunches.

Without further ado, counting down from 10, the top RBs (aka the only position that truly matters in fantasy football).

10. Edgerrin James - If any of you want to pick him as one of the Top 5 RBs, be my guest. I loved having the Edge on my team last year after hearing naysayers say he wasn't going to have a great season, but it was easy pickings as anyone with a brain knew Peyton wasn't going to throw damn near 50 TDs again - the TDs had to go somewhere, and to Edge they went, as he had 14 total. This year, you're dreaming if you expect anywhere near 1800 total yards and 14 TDs. Aside from the Cards line issus (it should be improved this year for a multitude of reasons), both Edge and Brenda's Husband are getting up there in age. Best case scenario for Edge: 1250 rush yards, 250 rec yards, 10 TD.

9. Willis McGahee - I'm not a fan of him, his QB (Kelly f-ing Holcomb??), or his team, but the man is a bit of a beast. I expect similar rush yards as last year (1200 or so) along with a TD total from 2004 (13).

8. Dominic Rhodes - The first crapshoot, as his status is still an unknown, what with a 1st round pick competing for the job. That said, the more established Rhodes should win the job and get a bulk of the touches, most notably the goal line touches, as he vultured from James in the past (4 TDs last year). I see a somewhat disappointing yardage total, but the sky's the limit for TDs.

7. Clinton Portis - I'm slowly becoming a big fan of Portis, at least in terms of the fantasy world. While his TDs seem to come in spurts (0 in the first 6 games last season, yet 12 total), he's a pretty consistent yardage machine, and consistency is a big thing for me, especially from the RB position. Even with a crappy QB (Brunell), he's a contender for 1600 yards - the TDs, however, are a crapshoot.

6. Stephen Jackson - Go ahead and laugh. I might laugh my way to a title if Jax slips to me in the late 2nd round or later. Now that moron Martz is gone, we may finally see what Jax is capable of if fed the ball consistently. While he certainly showed the potential to disappoint last year (12 rushes...for 6 yards...against the Cards?!?!), his potential for greatness is even bigger. Consider: he only got 20 or more rushes in a game 3 times last season, and he scored in all three and went for a combined 386 yards (129 avg). I see more of that in 2006. Bonus: Faulk may retire any day now.

5. Tiki Barber - I have trouble ranking him this high, as I am a constant doubter of his, and always will have to be proven wrong. If faced with a situation where my top 4 RBs were already taken, I probably wouldn't take Tiki; however, I know that's illogical and borderline dumb. So be it. Despite having some good weapons around him, this has to be the year that Tiki slows down. He's getting old, he has a lot of miles, and he's undersized. I don't like that combo - but please, be my guest and take him.

4. Rudi Johnson - Another guy in the mold of Portis in terms of production, but within higher TUP (or something), and I think he's younger than Portis to boot. Throw in the fact that he plays for an offensive juggernaut (pending Palmer's healthy return), and he could be gold. Only other downside was Chris Perry's good showing last season, which may reduce Rudi's touches.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson - Everyone calls him LT, but I've always preferred LaDaTo (pronounced La Day Toe). We're getting into "no-brainer" territory here. Tomlinson is a beast on the ground, via catch and even via pass (3 passing TDs last year?? Gimme a break.). Barring injury, his ceiling is limitless despite a change in QB. Anything less than 1400 rush yards and 15 TDs is a disappointment.

2. Shaun Alexander - How he manages to score that many TDs baffles me, what with Seattle's pretty bad receiving corps. Granted, they got rid of K-Ro, but still... Somehow, Alexander will manage to get 1600 rush yards and 18 or so TDs again, so you can't turn him down, but I get a bad feeling about him.

1. Larry Johnson - As if there's any doubt. Let's recap: not a starter until (what) week 7, and he still gets 1750 rush yards, 343 rec yards and 21 TDs. Only an idiot wouldn't take him with the 1st pick in the draft.
Last edited by Fletch on 28 Jul 2006, 16:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Take these F's and shove 'em - Fletch's Fantasy FB Forec

Postby Montecore's Revenge » 28 Jun 2006, 15:42

Rudi Johnson is about 2 years older than Portis, who doesn't even turn 25 until September.

I've been an Alexander supporter for several seasons, but he's moving into that "nagging injury" phase of his career, where he could miss 2-3 weeks due to wear and tear alone. He's no spring chicken.
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Postby SouthernYokel » 28 Jun 2006, 15:46

Nobody's worried about LJ losing his best OL man?
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Postby Fletch » 28 Jun 2006, 15:58

SouthernYokel wrote:Nobody's worried about LJ losing his best OL man?


No, SY. He'll be fine.

Monty, thanks. I wasn't sure about Clinton/Rudi and didn't feel like looking up ages. Close enough. :wink: I agree on Alexander. I don't think I'd want the 2nd pick in a draft - that's not a decision I'd want to make - overthinking stuff can kill you often.
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Postby Montecore's Revenge » 28 Jun 2006, 16:03

SouthernYokel wrote:Nobody's worried about LJ losing his best OL man?


Not only does that worry me, but also the fact that Al Saunders - the mastermind of that offense - left KC to join forces with fellow genius Joe Gibbs doesn't exactly help LJ's stock. Don't get me wrong - he's still a top 10 back for sure - but I wouldn't take him #1, given the turnover in relevant coaching staff (HC and OC gone) and offensive line personnel.

I think this is one of the toughest #1 picks in years. I'd really rather pick at #5 or so in my 10-man league.
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Postby Colonel Angus » 28 Jun 2006, 16:19

Didn't Alexander also lose part of his line or am I imagining things?

Alexander's and Johnson's lines cannot be discounted when talking about their success.
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Postby sportsdorkhater » 28 Jun 2006, 17:24

Colonel Angus wrote:Didn't Alexander also lose part of his line or am I imagining things?



youre right, Hutchinson signed with Minny
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Postby theken » 28 Jun 2006, 18:20

Now, if Larry Johnson is still on the Chiefs, which I believe he is, he has a good thing coming. Casey Printers, the possible third-string quarterback, is in training camp with the Chiefs. Now, Printers, for those of you who don't know, was the QB for the BC Lions, where he won the MOP two years ago. Yes, MOP, not MVP.

Ok, my post was sarcastic. I don't curr.
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Postby SouthernYokel » 29 Jun 2006, 12:45

I think Alexander has a better chance of continued success. Johnson has just never really impressed me as being that tough. He's already had injury problems once. Alexander has been a fantasy HORSE for 5 years now. I remember in 2002 when i picked him up in the 2nd round of our draft. Greatest steal ever, led me to the Percy Street Mafia League Championship. Alexander has done it with a lesser OL before. Johnson has had the KC line of immovable objects. I was never really a believer in Priest Holmes either...Picking Johnson (or holmes in the past) is sort of a vote of confidence for the KC line, and i wouldn't be willing to drop my #1 on that.
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Postby BostonSucksMyBalls » 29 Jun 2006, 12:46

For some reason, Ive talked myself into Portis at #3 over LT. With Al Saunders in DC, and Phillip Rivers taking over in SD, i dont think im overly crazy on my thoughts.
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Postby SouthernYokel » 29 Jun 2006, 12:47

I would take LT #1 every time i think. I don't think i'd ever want the #1 pick though. Too much pressure, i'd rather have #4 or so, and have my picks made for me by circumstance.
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Postby Colonel Angus » 29 Jun 2006, 12:49

BostonSucksMyBalls wrote:For some reason, Ive talked myself into Portis at #3 over LT. With Al Saunders in DC, and Phillip Rivers taking over in SD, i dont think im overly crazy on my thoughts.


I hope people in my league agree with you.
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Postby BostonSucksMyBalls » 29 Jun 2006, 12:49

SouthernYokel wrote:I would take LT #1 every time i think. I don't think i'd ever want the #1 pick though. Too much pressure, i'd rather have #4 or so, and have my picks made for me by circumstance.


I would take LJ #1 no matter what. I dont think Herm can fuck it up that much in KC. He did have Curtis Martin lead the NFL in rushing just 2 years ago. Curtis Martin!

I do like to pick late though.
PS: I will never like July 27th. It will always be the day Reggie died. I just hate this day. True Celtic fans know what I mean.

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Postby Fletch » 29 Jun 2006, 12:55

BostonSucksMyBalls wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:I would take LT #1 every time i think. I don't think i'd ever want the #1 pick though. Too much pressure, i'd rather have #4 or so, and have my picks made for me by circumstance.


I would take LJ #1 no matter what. I dont think Herm can fuck it up that much in KC. He did have Curtis Martin lead the NFL in rushing just 2 years ago. Curtis Martin!

I do like to pick late though.


In a 12 team league, I like to pick 10 or 11, generally, though it depends on the year. Some years, there's guys out there that are almost mortal locks to prove their worth, so it's not so bad having a top 3 pick. Last year, I got stuck with pick 7 in almost every league. I hated it, as I didn't get to enjoy any benefits of the snake effect. It's nice to make 2 quick picks and take some time off.

I can't possibly put Portis over LaDaTo, regardless of ? marks in SD. Tomlinson is superhuman and has carried that offense by himself (two years ago). Regardless of the QB (and it ain't like Rivers should be bad at all), Gates is still there to keep 'em honest.
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Postby Gaylord » 29 Jun 2006, 15:35

Tomlinson is the safe pick at #1, he's definitely who I'd take, but we can't know for sure who the best pick is until Simmons posts his fantasy guide, just go with the opposite of his picks and you'll be golden (I think last year he had Willis at #2), and don't fall for his touts that he's the greatest fantasy player ever or that he's hit ever bet since 1986, despite his .400 record at picking games...
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