Fantasy baseball trade advice

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Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Colonel Angus » 02 May 2006, 21:29

I am in a 5x5, mixed, non-keeper, 10-team league that used a straight draft. In the draft, I got Ray, Wickman, and Izzy to close for me and did pretty well offensively too, at the cost of ending up with some shaky starters. I was also fortunate enough to grab Papelbon off the wire, so I have a glut of closers and have been shopping them around for a good starter.

It is looking like the best offer I am going to get is Dontrelle Willis for Papelbon. Would you make that deal? I am tempted, for a couple of reasons: Papelbon?s stock is never going to be higher than right now, I basically got him for free off the wire and am pretty set at closer even without him, there is a chance he could end up back in the rotation and I have heard that Foulke is pitching pretty well, there is also a chance ? being a rookie ? that Papelbon could simply fall apart even though I?d say it?s a longshot.

Obviously I have rationalized the deal for myself, but I?m aware of the downside: Willis is going to struggle for wins on that terrible Florida team. But I really need strikeout help and he should be able to provide that.

Thoughts? (And those of you who are Sox fans, please try to divorce yourself from your man-love for Mr. Mohawk just for the sake of this question.)
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Montecore's Revenge » 02 May 2006, 22:08

Colonel Angus wrote:I am in a 5x5, mixed, non-keeper, 10-team league that used a straight draft. In the draft, I got Ray, Wickman, and Izzy to close for me and did pretty well offensively too, at the cost of ending up with some shaky starters. I was also fortunate enough to grab Papelbon off the wire, so I have a glut of closers and have been shopping them around for a good starter.

It is looking like the best offer I am going to get is Dontrelle Willis for Papelbon. Would you make that deal? I am tempted, for a couple of reasons: Papelbon?s stock is never going to be higher than right now, I basically got him for free off the wire and am pretty set at closer even without him, there is a chance he could end up back in the rotation and I have heard that Foulke is pitching pretty well, there is also a chance ? being a rookie ? that Papelbon could simply fall apart even though I?d say it?s a longshot.

Obviously I have rationalized the deal for myself, but I?m aware of the downside: Willis is going to struggle for wins on that terrible Florida team. But I really need strikeout help and he should be able to provide that.

Thoughts? (And those of you who are Sox fans, please try to divorce yourself from your man-love for Mr. Mohawk just for the sake of this question.)


All things being equal, no way do I make this deal. However, if you really need SP help, and since you consider Papelbon found money, you might have to pull the trigger. Keep in mind one thing, however: There's still a chance he'll be in the rotation for part of this year.

If it's me, I probably just try to trade Papelbon for an A-level starter, but not Willis. Based on your situation, it sounds like you've already done that. Quite frankly, I'm shocked Dontrelle Willis is the best you can do. I would think you could get a Jake Peavy or a Josh Beckett for him. However, given the fact that the other guys in your league let Papelbon go out on the waiver wire, they might not be savvy enough to realize his actual value.

Bottom line: If you can get a top-level starter on a decent team for him, do it. If not, I would keep him, and counter-offer for a Willis-level guy with a different closer. Just my two cents.
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Colonel Angus » 02 May 2006, 22:39

Montecore's Revenge wrote:
Colonel Angus wrote:I am in a 5x5, mixed, non-keeper, 10-team league that used a straight draft. In the draft, I got Ray, Wickman, and Izzy to close for me and did pretty well offensively too, at the cost of ending up with some shaky starters. I was also fortunate enough to grab Papelbon off the wire, so I have a glut of closers and have been shopping them around for a good starter.

It is looking like the best offer I am going to get is Dontrelle Willis for Papelbon. Would you make that deal? I am tempted, for a couple of reasons: Papelbon?s stock is never going to be higher than right now, I basically got him for free off the wire and am pretty set at closer even without him, there is a chance he could end up back in the rotation and I have heard that Foulke is pitching pretty well, there is also a chance ? being a rookie ? that Papelbon could simply fall apart even though I?d say it?s a longshot.

Obviously I have rationalized the deal for myself, but I?m aware of the downside: Willis is going to struggle for wins on that terrible Florida team. But I really need strikeout help and he should be able to provide that.

Thoughts? (And those of you who are Sox fans, please try to divorce yourself from your man-love for Mr. Mohawk just for the sake of this question.)


All things being equal, no way do I make this deal. However, if you really need SP help, and since you consider Papelbon found money, you might have to pull the trigger. Keep in mind one thing, however: There's still a chance he'll be in the rotation for part of this year.

If it's me, I probably just try to trade Papelbon for an A-level starter, but not Willis. Based on your situation, it sounds like you've already done that. Quite frankly, I'm shocked Dontrelle Willis is the best you can do. I would think you could get a Jake Peavy or a Josh Beckett for him. However, given the fact that the other guys in your league let Papelbon go out on the waiver wire, they might not be savvy enough to realize his actual value.

Bottom line: If you can get a top-level starter on a decent team for him, do it. If not, I would keep him, and counter-offer for a Willis-level guy with a different closer. Just my two cents.


Well, there's not much depth in the league, with it being mixed, only 10 teams, and there only being two bench spots per team (and no IR) so Papelbon - a middle reliever with hopes to make the rotation at some point at the time of the draft - was not drafted. When Foulke had his first crappy outing (which may have been his first outing as I recall,) I pounced on Papelbon and stashed him on my bench until he took the closer job.

So it wasn't a lack of savvy in the league that let me get him - it was mainly lucky timing. And the rest of the league sems to be pretty shrewd, at least in trade negotiations. Willis is all I've been offered that is even worth considering.

I wonder if maybe I should try to counter with Ray. I've already tried to trade Wickman for Willis and the guy didn't bite.

Thanks for the advice, MR.
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Montecore's Revenge » 02 May 2006, 23:10

Colonel Angus wrote:Well, there's not much depth in the league, with it being mixed, only 10 teams, and there only being two bench spots per team (and no IR) so Papelbon - a middle reliever with hopes to make the rotation at some point at the time of the draft - was not drafted. When Foulke had his first crappy outing (which may have been his first outing as I recall,) I pounced on Papelbon and stashed him on my bench until he took the closer job.

So it wasn't a lack of savvy in the league that let me get him - it was mainly lucky timing. And the rest of the league sems to be pretty shrewd, at least in trade negotiations. Willis is all I've been offered that is even worth considering.

I wonder if maybe I should try to counter with Ray. I've already tried to trade Wickman for Willis and the guy didn't bite.

Thanks for the advice, MR.


How big are the rosters for each team? In a league that small, I feel like you could pick something up the FA list that would be comparable to Willis in ERA and WHIP, and as good or better in W. Granted, you said you need Ks, but the point I'm making is that if there are only, say, 40-50 SP taken on rosters, you should still be able to get someone good off the FA list or waiver wire, such that trading away Papelbon might not make sense if you're only getting Willis. Put another way - there are only 30 closers in MLB at any given time. Realistically, only about 25 are desirable. That's a very precious commodity. On the other hand, you have an average of fewer than one true "ace" (A-level pitcher) per team, and an average of somewhere between 1-2 solid (B/B+) SP per team.

As you correctly point out, the fact that Willis plays for a crappy Marlins team drops him out of the category of a Johan Santana or Roy Oswalt and into the category of a either a less talented pitcher on a better team, or an equally-talented pitcher on a crappy team. So, my point is that you're potentially giving up an "A" closer (of which there are maybe 15 in the league, 25 at most) for a "B/B+" starter (of which there are perhaps 50 in MLB, along with the 20 or so aces).

Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide to do.
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Colonel Angus » 02 May 2006, 23:21

Montecore's Revenge wrote:
Colonel Angus wrote:Well, there's not much depth in the league, with it being mixed, only 10 teams, and there only being two bench spots per team (and no IR) so Papelbon - a middle reliever with hopes to make the rotation at some point at the time of the draft - was not drafted. When Foulke had his first crappy outing (which may have been his first outing as I recall,) I pounced on Papelbon and stashed him on my bench until he took the closer job.

So it wasn't a lack of savvy in the league that let me get him - it was mainly lucky timing. And the rest of the league sems to be pretty shrewd, at least in trade negotiations. Willis is all I've been offered that is even worth considering.

I wonder if maybe I should try to counter with Ray. I've already tried to trade Wickman for Willis and the guy didn't bite.

Thanks for the advice, MR.


How big are the rosters for each team? In a league that small, I feel like you could pick something up the FA list that would be comparable to Willis in ERA and WHIP, and as good or better in W. Granted, you said you need Ks, but the point I'm making is that if there are only, say, 40-50 SP taken on rosters, you should still be able to get someone good off the FA list or waiver wire, such that trading away Papelbon might not make sense if you're only getting Willis. Put another way - there are only 30 closers in MLB at any given time. Realistically, only about 25 are desirable. That's a very precious commodity. On the other hand, you have an average of fewer than one true "ace" (A-level pitcher) per team, and an average of somewhere between 1-2 solid (B/B+) SP per team.

As you correctly point out, the fact that Willis plays for a crappy Marlins team drops him out of the category of a Johan Santana or Roy Oswalt and into the category of a either a less talented pitcher on a better team, or an equally-talented pitcher on a crappy team. So, my point is that you're potentially giving up an "A" closer (of which there are maybe 15 in the league, 25 at most) for a "B/B+" starter (of which there are perhaps 50 in MLB, along with the 20 or so aces).

Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide to do.


10 teams have to start 9 pitchers, with two bench slots to use for hitters or pitchers, so a maximum of 11 pitchers per team. Unfortunately one of my bench slots will be occupied by Derrek Lee for a couple of months.

Teams seem to pick up and drop guys all the time - you can do so daily, although you can only change your starting lineup weekly - so any time a pitcher has a decent outing he gets grabbed, but I recently dropped Radke for Thomson. Lieber is next in line on my team to get cut, although he picked up a W in a mediocre outing tonight.

I agree about giving up an elite closer for a non-elite starter, but nobody has really shown interest in any of the rest of my closers.

I may just sit tight and see how it shakes out.

Thanks again.
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Postby Brick Tamland » 29 Mar 2007, 08:31

Not sure if this is the thread for this, but the Fantasy Baseball 2007 thread seems like it's specifically for the SOTSG league, so I'll throw this in here...

I was out of town for my mixed-league draft, so I wound up with an auto-draft roster. Pretty pleased with who I wound up with, except it seems I forgot to put Jared Weaver on my do-not-draft list and got stuck with him. I've read too much stuff the past month about how he's lazy and didn't work out at all this offseason and really think he's gonna tank this year (plus he's a colossal douche). My question: should I start shopping him around my league now, or wait a month and see if he starts off hot and increases in value (at which point I'd still want to dump him cuz I know he won't last the full season)?
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Postby Tremendous_sidePotential » 29 Mar 2007, 08:48

Brick Tamland wrote:My question: should I start shopping him around my league now, or wait a month and see if he starts off hot and increases in value (at which point I'd still want to dump him cuz I know he won't last the full season)?


Ehhhhhhh not gonna happen right now
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Postby Fletch » 29 Mar 2007, 10:16

Damnit, I read the first few posts of this thread just now and thought, how the fuck did Papelbon not get drafted in Angug's league?

I get it now. #-o
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Postby Brick Tamland » 29 Mar 2007, 11:01

Tremendous_sidePotential wrote:
Brick Tamland wrote:My question: should I start shopping him around my league now, or wait a month and see if he starts off hot and increases in value (at which point I'd still want to dump him cuz I know he won't last the full season)?


Ehhhhhhh not gonna happen right now


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Postby PornoGil » 02 Oct 2007, 13:06

I'm bored so I figured I'd get some early opinions on my keeper situation for my $ league (finished in 3rd out of 12 this year after winning last year). 10 category roto league (avg, hr, r, rbi, sb, w, k, sv, era, whip); start 14 hitters (positions to follow) and 9 pitchers. $260 to fill these 23 spots. A lot of the other teams are loaded with good bargains, so frugality is a must...

C Kendall, Jason (CHN - C) 1.00
C Lo Duca, Paul (NYM - C) 9.00
1B Howard, Ryan (PHI - 1B) 16.00
2B Pedroia, Dustin (BOS - 2B) 1.00
3B Beltre, Adrian (SEA - 3B) 13.00
SS Reyes, Jose (NYM - SS) 7.00
CR LaRoche, Adam (PIT - 1B) 6.00
MI Kendrick, Howie (LAA - 2B) 11.00
OF Damon, Johnny (NYY - OF) 24.00
OF Drew, J.D. (BOS - OF) 8.00
OF Spilborghs, Ryan (COL - OF) 1.00
OF Suzuki, Ichiro (SEA - OF) 37.00
OF Swisher, Nick (OAK - OF) 13.00
UT Thome, Jim (CHA - DH) 19.00
P Benoit, Joaquin (TEX - P) 1.00
P Cain, Matt (SFO - P) 15.00
P Escobar, Kelvim (LAA - P) 10.00
P Francis, Jeff (COL - P) 1.00
P Lackey, John (LAA - P) 24.00
P Marcum, Shaun (TOR - P) 1.00
P Martinez, Pedro (NYM - P) 1.00
P Putz, J.J. (SEA - P) 15.00
P Sheets, Ben (MIL - P) 24.00
P Bedard, Erik (BAL - P) 15.00

We keep 3 players. Reyes (7) and Howard (16) are pretty much sure things at this point. I don't have to decide on this until next March, but I have no idea what I'm going to do for my 3rd keeper. Thoughts?
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Bricks » 13 Jul 2009, 17:13

I'm currently in third in my 12-man roto league with buddies. I'm leading in RBI, HR and OBP, and second in runs and BA. However, I'm last in Ws, second to last in Ks, and middle of the road in quality starts, ERA, and WHIP. I had a trade proposed to me by someone I'm way ahead of: Mark Reynolds from my team, for Jira Jurrgens from his team. Thoughts?
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby PornoGil » 14 Jul 2009, 09:54

Bricks wrote:I'm currently in third in my 12-man roto league with buddies. I'm leading in RBI, HR and OBP, and second in runs and BA. However, I'm last in Ws, second to last in Ks, and middle of the road in quality starts, ERA, and WHIP. I had a trade proposed to me by someone I'm way ahead of: Mark Reynolds from my team, for Jira Jurrgens from his team. Thoughts?

Great, I needed a reminder that I chose not to keep Pedroia for $1 going into his MVP season.

Seriously though, I probably wouldn't do this. If it's Ws and Ks you're looking for, then Jurrjens is a pretty MOR [/_]* option. Reynolds should be able to get you more than that. Maybe you could target a Cole Hamels or James Shields type? Someone who hasn't exactly lit it up in the first half, maybe their owners are down on them, but they're still a good bet to give you Ws and Ks and possibly much more. Basically I think Jurrjens is a very safe player who's not going to give you a huge push for what you need.

* MOR = Middle of the road, according to _
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Gaylord » 14 Jul 2009, 10:57

PornoGil wrote:
Bricks wrote:I'm currently in third in my 12-man roto league with buddies. I'm leading in RBI, HR and OBP, and second in runs and BA. However, I'm last in Ws, second to last in Ks, and middle of the road in quality starts, ERA, and WHIP. I had a trade proposed to me by someone I'm way ahead of: Mark Reynolds from my team, for Jira Jurrgens from his team. Thoughts?

Great, I needed a reminder that I chose not to keep Pedroia for $1 going into his MVP season.

Seriously though, I probably wouldn't do this. If it's Ws and Ks you're looking for, then Jurrjens is a pretty MOR [/_]* option. Reynolds should be able to get you more than that. Maybe you could target a Cole Hamels or James Shields type? Someone who hasn't exactly lit it up in the first half, maybe their owners are down on them, but they're still a good bet to give you Ws and Ks and possibly much more. Basically I think Jurrjens is a very safe player who's not going to give you a huge push for what you need.

* MOR = Middle of the road, according to _


I have never heard of either player, but I'd stick with Jurgens for the easy masturbaition jokes.
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby Bricks » 14 Jul 2009, 12:09

I ended up keeping Mark Reynolds and offering a counter-deal of James Loney.
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Re: Fantasy baseball trade advice

Postby ctz31 » 10 Mar 2010, 12:59

Fantasy Baseball Keeper Question:

Can I consider NOT keeping any of these guys in a league where you lose the draft pick of the round the keeper was selected in?

A-Rod: 2nd
Hanley: 4th
Braun: 5th

(Also keeping Carpenter 19th and Votto 22nd)

Generally, you'd like to keep players from later rounds (obviously), but these all seem too good to pass up. I hate to give up 3 of my first 5 picks, but I think I have to. Other options: Hanson 15th, Francisco/Fuentes/Hoffman (closers are EXTREMELY valuable in this league) 4th/11th/13th, Lester 8th. I suppose I can try a pre-draft trade....
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