FTT wrote:Gonazalez is great and would fit right in at Fenway
You have a wife and two kids, and a very demanding job apparently....there is NO FUCKING WAY you know anything about Adrian Gonzalez, and how he would fit in at Fenway or how he would deal with the pressure cooker of Beantown. He's like the Chris Bosh of MLB, everyone says he's good but nobody's seen him actually play.
I'll jump in late on this but he is a great fit at Fenway.
I've owned him for the past 2.5 years in my main keeper league (/unnecessary validation), so I've definitely seen my fair share of his ABs, dug into his numbers and complained about what Petco does/did to his back-of-the-card baseball stats. That being said, what says you have to watch him day in and out to understand and/or make that sort of a statement. It's not one that people who do in fact live and work with the game haven't made. Jed Hoyer said as much, as have numerous baseball writers and experts.
Adrian is a great fit at the park for a few reasons. First, neutralizing his stats to go from Petco (extreme pitchers park) to Fenway (upper echelon hitters park) should bump his OPS close to 100 points itself. Here's the work Fangraphs did on that:
Additionally, he's a lefty hitter with spray power to all fields, which should play extremely well for balls off/over the Monster in LF in Fenway. Here's his home run scatter plot from 2010, landing spots neutralized for weather conditions (wind, temperature, air pressure):
I personally think he's going to be an absolute beast next year, provided his shoulder heals properly (which I think it will and don't worry too much about). If I had to lay bets, I'd throw him as the favorite for AL MVP. That's obviously optimistic, but I genuinely believe in that.