Red Sox first in line to get Beckett

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Postby Frank the Tank » 14 Nov 2006, 07:51

All you need to know about the popularity of American baseball in Japan can be seen in Safeco Field and Yankee Stadium. Both places had Japanese language advertisements on the outfield walls this year, and at one point Safeco had a Japanese adtheir rotating advertisement banner behind homeplate. If these Japanese companies are willing to outbid American companies for advertising space then that's a very powerful statement on the importance of establishing a presence in that nation.
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Postby Rodney Farva » 14 Nov 2006, 08:21

i'm going to try to be nice about this, but ogie. do you think they are going to invest $42 million, just for the right to negotiate, because it gives them the opportunity to market to japanese people? is that really what you think is behind this? can you even allow for the possibility they think he's a good enough pitcher to be worth the investment? particularly as schilling isn't getting any younger and top of the rotation pitchers aren't just hanging out in bus stations waiting for a ride?

and hoya, last i checked there are plenty of asians around the boston area. shocking, i know, given the presence of mit, harvard, and the high-tech industry that developed there in the 80s-90s. i don't think his english abilities will be any more of an issue in boston than anywhere else, unless for some reason he decides to hang in southie or something.
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Postby Ogie Oglethorpe » 14 Nov 2006, 08:26

Farva, Obviously I'm not saying that's the reason they spent the money. I'm just offering up one of the justifications of spending that much. People are saying it's too much and I was trying to point out that they could get it back pretty easy and in fact MAKE money off this deal.
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Postby Theny » 14 Nov 2006, 08:27

It blows my mind how many of these MLB players don't speak English. I mean, I can understand if they were mowing lawns or washing dishes 15 hours a day for minimum wage, but these guys are millionaires whose only responsibility is playing a game. You'd think they'd have not only the time, but the resources to at least learn enough English to get by.
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Postby Frank the Tank » 14 Nov 2006, 08:27

Rodney Farva wrote:i'm going to try to be nice about this, but ogie. do you think they are going to invest $42 million, just for the right to negotiate, because it gives them the opportunity to market to japanese people? is that really what you think is behind this? can you even allow for the possibility they think he's a good enough pitcher to be worth the investment? particularly as schilling isn't getting any younger and top of the rotation pitchers aren't just hanging out in bus stations waiting for a ride?

While his gyroball is indeed filthy, I think the marketing to Japan is the primary issue here. You certainly could justify this decision as a baseball-only move, but that's inconsistent with the moves the front office has made over the past two seasons. They let Pedro go over a fourth season ($13M), they let Damon go over $12M over four years, and they let Abreu sign with the Yankees over a few million dollars in retained salary. Despite the huge payroll the Red Sox have, they have recently shown a willingness to walk away from great players over amounts well under $42M. Granted part of that is the luxury tax, but only a small part. Either (a) this is at least in large part a marketing move or (b) it signifies a drastic shift in personnel management strategy. I think we'll need to wait and see what othe free agent moves they make before we know whether (a) or (b) is more likely.
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Postby sportsdorkhater » 14 Nov 2006, 08:35

Theny wrote:It blows my mind how many of these MLB players don't speak English. I mean, I can understand if they were mowing lawns or washing dishes 15 hours a day for minimum wage, but these guys are millionaires whose only responsibility is playing a game. You'd think they'd have not only the time, but the resources to at least learn enough English to get by.


i think its hard to determine which players cant speak engrish. there are a few that can speak english but as a way to avoid the media they use the language difference as an excuse. BH Kim is one example that comes to mind. Also, remember Sosa at the steroid hearings? suddenly he needed someone to interpret the questions that were being asked of him.
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Postby Rodney Farva » 14 Nov 2006, 08:38

it's reasonable to see it as part of the decision. and while i disagree, it's possible that a reasonable person would think marketing was one of the most important reasons for the sox to make the bid. to think that putting up japanese signs is the only reason is stoopid.

perhaps a foothold in asia is part of the decision, but i don't see it as the primary one unless that idiot lucchino has usurped the baseball decision making. if they didn't feel Matsuzaka was top of the rotation caliber, they wouldn't have made a bid of that magnitude. in their division, you need two aces in the rotation, so with schilling near the end (and still questions about beckett long-term), this is expensive but better than giving up a lot in trade or the other options in the free-agent market this year.

i don't see the previous decisions you listed as analagous, either. pedro was high-mileage with all kinds of potential for physical breakdowns. with damon it wasn't just money, it was the length of the contract. in both cases, there was also the question of available replacement value. in the case of abreu, there was also the question of what they would have to give up to get him.

ETA that i was responding to tank's post, if that's not entirely clear, forgot to use the quote button.
Last edited by Rodney Farva on 14 Nov 2006, 08:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Theny » 14 Nov 2006, 08:39

sportsdorkhater wrote:
Theny wrote:It blows my mind how many of these MLB players don't speak English. I mean, I can understand if they were mowing lawns or washing dishes 15 hours a day for minimum wage, but these guys are millionaires whose only responsibility is playing a game. You'd think they'd have not only the time, but the resources to at least learn enough English to get by.


i think its hard to determine which players cant speak engrish. there are a few that can speak english but as a way to avoid the media they use the language difference as an excuse. BH Kim is one example that comes to mind. Also, remember Sosa at the steroid hearings? suddenly he needed someone to interpret the questions that were being asked of him.


Yeah, that was funny. What a tool he is.

I know OTL did a show on this subject once and they mentioned the 'way to avoid the media' thing that you just mentioned. But I guess Mariano Rivera was going around to a lot of these Latin American guys imploring them to learn English, specifically since it helps w/ endorsements. Soriano is one guy in particular that this sort of thing has hurt in that department, though he may be able to speak English now, I don't know.
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Postby Frank the Tank » 14 Nov 2006, 09:18

Rodney Farva wrote:it's reasonable to see it as part of the decision. and while i disagree, it's possible that a reasonable person would think marketing was one of the most important reasons for the sox to make the bid. to think that putting up japanese signs is the only reason is stoopid.

perhaps a foothold in asia is part of the decision, but i don't see it as the primary one unless that idiot lucchino has usurped the baseball decision making. if they didn't feel Matsuzaka was top of the rotation caliber, they wouldn't have made a bid of that magnitude. in their division, you need two aces in the rotation, so with schilling near the end (and still questions about beckett long-term), this is expensive but better than giving up a lot in trade or the other options in the free-agent market this year.

i don't see the previous decisions you listed as analagous, either. pedro was high-mileage with all kinds of potential for physical breakdowns. with damon it wasn't just money, it was the length of the contract. in both cases, there was also the question of available replacement value. in the case of abreu, there was also the question of what they would have to give up to get him.

ETA that i was responding to tank's post, if that's not entirely clear, forgot to use the quote button.

Well they certainly feel he's top-of-the-rotation caliber because you need a superstar over here to get people in Japan to watch. Matsui and Ichiro generate those types of followings because they were the best of the best in Japan. You don't see So Taguchi promoting a lot of Japanese language advertising in Busch Stadium. I'm not trying to diminish D-Mat's pitching skills at all. Let's say the Red Sox sign him to four years at $40M. That turns into $82M for four years with the rights fees, and I don't think that they think any player in baseball is worth $20M a year simply due to on-the-field contributions. If they did they probably would have ponied up the extra money to land ARod in early '04. That's why I think the marketing opportunities are driving up Matsuzaka's value to the Sox. Maybe it's 70% player 30% marketing, maybe 80%/20%, maybe 60%/40%, but it's not 100%/0%.
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Postby nova » 14 Nov 2006, 09:31

Frank the Tank wrote: Let's say the Red Sox sign him to four years at $40M. That turns into $82M for four years with the rights fees, and I don't think that they think any player in baseball is worth $20M a year simply due to on-the-field contributions.


If your projections are correct, the Red Sox will have spent more on one player ($82mm) than 15 other teams spent on their entire payrolls in 2006.

I'm just sayin-- the (relative) Pirates have come a long way :mrgreen:
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Postby bosux » 14 Nov 2006, 10:11

Frank the Tank wrote:
Rodney Farva wrote:it's reasonable to see it as part of the decision. and while i disagree, it's possible that a reasonable person would think marketing was one of the most important reasons for the sox to make the bid. to think that putting up japanese signs is the only reason is stoopid.

perhaps a foothold in asia is part of the decision, but i don't see it as the primary one unless that idiot lucchino has usurped the baseball decision making. if they didn't feel Matsuzaka was top of the rotation caliber, they wouldn't have made a bid of that magnitude. in their division, you need two aces in the rotation, so with schilling near the end (and still questions about beckett long-term), this is expensive but better than giving up a lot in trade or the other options in the free-agent market this year.

i don't see the previous decisions you listed as analagous, either. pedro was high-mileage with all kinds of potential for physical breakdowns. with damon it wasn't just money, it was the length of the contract. in both cases, there was also the question of available replacement value. in the case of abreu, there was also the question of what they would have to give up to get him.

ETA that i was responding to tank's post, if that's not entirely clear, forgot to use the quote button.

Well they certainly feel he's top-of-the-rotation caliber because you need a superstar over here to get people in Japan to watch. Matsui and Ichiro generate those types of followings because they were the best of the best in Japan. You don't see So Taguchi promoting a lot of Japanese language advertising in Busch Stadium. I'm not trying to diminish D-Mat's pitching skills at all. Let's say the Red Sox sign him to four years at $40M. That turns into $82M for four years with the rights fees, and I don't think that they think any player in baseball is worth $20M a year simply due to on-the-field contributions. If they did they probably would have ponied up the extra money to land ARod in early '04. That's why I think the marketing opportunities are driving up Matsuzaka's value to the Sox. Maybe it's 70% player 30% marketing, maybe 80%/20%, maybe 60%/40%, but it's not 100%/0%.


point to frank...i don't have any numbers, but if you've ever seen the insane japanese media contingent at a Yankee's february practice, you will know that having a japanese superstar on your team generates decent returns...millions of people in Japan watch the Yankees play on TV at ungodly hours(or more likely record the games), simply because of matsui...lord only knows what they make just on the japanese TV rights...add that to the japanese merchandising sales, billboards and thousands of nips in the stands at every Yankee game(who have millions of yen in disposable income...i mean where do you think that kimono you wear comes from, farva?), but i'm sure hit-deki is paying for himself several times over

and to get this back on topic, when the deal was made, i thought that the beckett signing was similar to the Yankees 2005 signings of wright and pavano, in that they were expensive signings with some decent upside, but also a track record of inconsistency and injury...not a great signing, but obviously they felt like they had to take a shot with him
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Postby Rodney Farva » 14 Nov 2006, 10:20

bosux191820042090 wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:
Rodney Farva wrote:it's reasonable to see it as part of the decision. and while i disagree, it's possible that a reasonable person would think marketing was one of the most important reasons for the sox to make the bid. to think that putting up japanese signs is the only reason is stoopid.

perhaps a foothold in asia is part of the decision, but i don't see it as the primary one unless that idiot lucchino has usurped the baseball decision making. if they didn't feel Matsuzaka was top of the rotation caliber, they wouldn't have made a bid of that magnitude. in their division, you need two aces in the rotation, so with schilling near the end (and still questions about beckett long-term), this is expensive but better than giving up a lot in trade or the other options in the free-agent market this year.

i don't see the previous decisions you listed as analagous, either. pedro was high-mileage with all kinds of potential for physical breakdowns. with damon it wasn't just money, it was the length of the contract. in both cases, there was also the question of available replacement value. in the case of abreu, there was also the question of what they would have to give up to get him.

ETA that i was responding to tank's post, if that's not entirely clear, forgot to use the quote button.

Well they certainly feel he's top-of-the-rotation caliber because you need a superstar over here to get people in Japan to watch. Matsui and Ichiro generate those types of followings because they were the best of the best in Japan. You don't see So Taguchi promoting a lot of Japanese language advertising in Busch Stadium. I'm not trying to diminish D-Mat's pitching skills at all. Let's say the Red Sox sign him to four years at $40M. That turns into $82M for four years with the rights fees, and I don't think that they think any player in baseball is worth $20M a year simply due to on-the-field contributions. If they did they probably would have ponied up the extra money to land ARod in early '04. That's why I think the marketing opportunities are driving up Matsuzaka's value to the Sox. Maybe it's 70% player 30% marketing, maybe 80%/20%, maybe 60%/40%, but it's not 100%/0%.


point to frank...i don't have any numbers, but if you've ever seen the insane japanese media contingent at a Yankee's february practice, you will know that having a japanese superstar on your team generates decent returns...millions of people in Japan watch the Yankees play on TV at ungodly hours(or more likely record the games), simply because of matsui...lord only knows what they make just on the japanese TV rights...add that to the japanese merchandising sales, billboards and thousands of nips in the stands at every Yankee game(who have millions of yen in disposable income...i mean where do you think that kimono you wear comes from, farva?), but i'm sure hit-deki is paying for himself several times over

and to get this back on topic, when the deal was made, i thought that the beckett signing was similar to the Yankees 2005 signings of wright and pavano, in that they were expensive signings with some decent upside, but also a track record of inconsistency and injury...not a great signing, but obviously they felt like they had to take a shot with him


i have no problem with what frank said. i have a problem with the 'they just signed him to put up japanese signs.' if he's the next hideki irabooboo instead of the next hideki matsui then the concession stands aren't going to be moving many servings of ramen noodles.

since the guy is 26, if the risk pays off and they can keep him long-term, amortizing that extra $42 mill over, say 12-14 years isn't quite so bad. that's a reach and alone no justification, but i'm just saying.

to take your on topic off topic for a sec, why did baltimore want to pick up wright? because he had a half-way decent year a while ago in atlanta and they think mazzone can sprinkle fairy dust on him and turn him into a good pitcher?
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Postby bosux » 14 Nov 2006, 10:31

Rodney Farva wrote:
bosux191820042090 wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:
Rodney Farva wrote:it's reasonable to see it as part of the decision. and while i disagree, it's possible that a reasonable person would think marketing was one of the most important reasons for the sox to make the bid. to think that putting up japanese signs is the only reason is stoopid.

perhaps a foothold in asia is part of the decision, but i don't see it as the primary one unless that idiot lucchino has usurped the baseball decision making. if they didn't feel Matsuzaka was top of the rotation caliber, they wouldn't have made a bid of that magnitude. in their division, you need two aces in the rotation, so with schilling near the end (and still questions about beckett long-term), this is expensive but better than giving up a lot in trade or the other options in the free-agent market this year.

i don't see the previous decisions you listed as analagous, either. pedro was high-mileage with all kinds of potential for physical breakdowns. with damon it wasn't just money, it was the length of the contract. in both cases, there was also the question of available replacement value. in the case of abreu, there was also the question of what they would have to give up to get him.

ETA that i was responding to tank's post, if that's not entirely clear, forgot to use the quote button.

Well they certainly feel he's top-of-the-rotation caliber because you need a superstar over here to get people in Japan to watch. Matsui and Ichiro generate those types of followings because they were the best of the best in Japan. You don't see So Taguchi promoting a lot of Japanese language advertising in Busch Stadium. I'm not trying to diminish D-Mat's pitching skills at all. Let's say the Red Sox sign him to four years at $40M. That turns into $82M for four years with the rights fees, and I don't think that they think any player in baseball is worth $20M a year simply due to on-the-field contributions. If they did they probably would have ponied up the extra money to land ARod in early '04. That's why I think the marketing opportunities are driving up Matsuzaka's value to the Sox. Maybe it's 70% player 30% marketing, maybe 80%/20%, maybe 60%/40%, but it's not 100%/0%.


point to frank...i don't have any numbers, but if you've ever seen the insane japanese media contingent at a Yankee's february practice, you will know that having a japanese superstar on your team generates decent returns...millions of people in Japan watch the Yankees play on TV at ungodly hours(or more likely record the games), simply because of matsui...lord only knows what they make just on the japanese TV rights...add that to the japanese merchandising sales, billboards and thousands of nips in the stands at every Yankee game(who have millions of yen in disposable income...i mean where do you think that kimono you wear comes from, farva?), but i'm sure hit-deki is paying for himself several times over

and to get this back on topic, when the deal was made, i thought that the beckett signing was similar to the Yankees 2005 signings of wright and pavano, in that they were expensive signings with some decent upside, but also a track record of inconsistency and injury...not a great signing, but obviously they felt like they had to take a shot with him


i have no problem with what frank said. i have a problem with the 'they just signed him to put up japanese signs.' if he's the next hideki irabooboo instead of the next hideki matsui then the concession stands aren't going to be moving many servings of ramen noodles.

since the guy is 26, if the risk pays off and they can keep him long-term, amortizing that extra $42 mill over, say 12-14 years isn't quite so bad. that's a reach and alone no justification, but i'm just saying.

to take your on topic off topic for a sec, why did baltimore want to pick up wright? because he had a half-way decent year a while ago in atlanta and they think mazzone can sprinkle fairy dust on him and turn him into a good pitcher?


i agree with your assesment of the posssible negatives, but every move a team makes is a roll of the dice, and every team that shells out big bucks for a nip star is taking an even bigger gamble, with a greater potential payoff...this guy appears to be as close to a sure thing as is possible for a jap pitcher...i can't even begin to imagine the amount of scouting that goes into this, given the investment

as for wright, the Yankees are paying $4mil of the $7 he is owed in this, the final year of a three year contract. they would have had to pay $4mil to buy him out anyway, so they at least got a player in return for doing it...i think the combination of getting him for $3mil, his decent second half(6-2, era under 3.00, iirc) and re-uniting him with mazzone are the reasons the O's went for it
by bosux » 02 Mar 2016, 13:34
if the democratic power machine is so tone deaf as to foist $hrillary upon the electorate they will lose to Trump...bet on it
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Postby Rodney Farva » 14 Nov 2006, 10:42

top marks for cogency, se?or sux.
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Postby bosux » 14 Nov 2006, 10:45

Rodney Farva wrote:top marks for cogency, se?or sux.


thanks...and a nod to you on the til-day insertion
by bosux » 02 Mar 2016, 13:34
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