The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby nova » 14 Oct 2009, 11:39

I don't know if backloading a closer's contract is a wise move. If he's showing signs of decline already, then chances are, I wouldn't go past 3 years, 39 million for him. Maybe add a club option for year four, but other than that, I don't think Paps is going to be the next Mariano. He'll be lucky if he's the next John Wettland.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby BostonSucksMyBalls » 14 Oct 2009, 11:47

Like it fuckin matters. If he implodes, theyll just trade him and eat 80% of the salary and buy someone new. Its the Faggott Nation, people. Money is no object.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby Frank the Tank » 14 Oct 2009, 11:48

Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby ONTB » 14 Oct 2009, 11:51

Good points Nova, I think the retort would be that he's only 28 and has produced 3 elite years and one just under elite in the past 4 seasons. Plus he was developed as a starter, so he has a strong mechanical background and should be less prone to falter as the innings pile on. It's a toss up for me. I'd be fine if they traded him or if they locked him up for 4 or 5 seasons. All depends on how it fits in the budget.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby Clayton Bigsby » 14 Oct 2009, 11:57

ONTB, what is the "elite" cutoff? What kind of IRA, MB9, GOAO, and RPF are we looking at?
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby Rodney Farva » 14 Oct 2009, 11:59

i'd take him for two years at whatever he gets in arbitration (20 total?) but no way to 4-5 years. rather get rid of him too soon than too late, and if they keep him too long they either stop bard's progress or are forced to trade him.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby ONTB » 14 Oct 2009, 12:06

Clayton Bigsby wrote:ONTB, what is the "elite" cutoff? What kind of IRA, MB9, GOAO, and RPF are we looking at?


I think top 15 in WHIP for a reliever is the elite level. Those are the top relievers in a given year. Papelbon just missed that this past season, but he's clearly elite in sum total.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby chrisco » 14 Oct 2009, 12:11

ONTB wrote:
Clayton Bigsby wrote:ONTB, what is the "elite" cutoff? What kind of IRA, MB9, GOAO, and RPF are we looking at?


I think top 15 in WHIP for a reliever is the elite level. Those are the top relievers in a given year. Papelbon just missed that this past season, but he's clearly elite in sum total.


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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby ONTB » 14 Oct 2009, 12:22

Frank the Tank wrote:Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.


Frank,

I'm racking my brain trying to think about a team that would want to bring Papelbon in and likely give him a 4 year contract. I don't think you trade for him without that in mind. I really can't think of anyone other than the Yankees if Rivera walks away this off season for some reason and the Phillies. I'm not sure either of those teams have the kind of MLB ready bat for trade that the Sox would want. The Cubs would also be an option, but I'm not sure what kind of salary they want to take on-- same with the Cardinals.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby Frank the Tank » 14 Oct 2009, 12:28

ONTB wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.


Frank,

I'm racking my brain trying to think about a team that would want to bring Papelbon in and likely give him a 4 year contract. I don't think you trade for him without that in mind. I really can't think of anyone other than the Yankees if Rivera walks away this off season for some reason and the Phillies. I'm not sure either of those teams have the kind of MLB ready bat for trade that the Sox would want. The Cubs would also be an option, but I'm not sure what kind of salary they want to take on-- same with the Cardinals.


I agree, but Papelbon still has value in arbitration over his next couple years. If he could be used as a cog for a really big bat, then trading him would probably be worth it. I'm just not sure who that bat would be and if Papelbon would be enough or if you'd get the usual untouchable names thrown in to the discussion.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby nova » 14 Oct 2009, 12:31

Frank the Tank wrote:
ONTB wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.


Frank,

I'm racking my brain trying to think about a team that would want to bring Papelbon in and likely give him a 4 year contract. I don't think you trade for him without that in mind. I really can't think of anyone other than the Yankees if Rivera walks away this off season for some reason and the Phillies. I'm not sure either of those teams have the kind of MLB ready bat for trade that the Sox would want. The Cubs would also be an option, but I'm not sure what kind of salary they want to take on-- same with the Cardinals.


I agree, but Papelbon still has value in arbitration over his next couple years. If he could be used as a cog for a really big bat, then trading him would probably be worth it. I'm just not sure who that bat would be and if Papelbon would be enough or if you'd get the usual untouchable names thrown in to the discussion.


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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby ONTB » 14 Oct 2009, 12:34

nasty nova wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:
ONTB wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.


Frank,

I'm racking my brain trying to think about a team that would want to bring Papelbon in and likely give him a 4 year contract. I don't think you trade for him without that in mind. I really can't think of anyone other than the Yankees if Rivera walks away this off season for some reason and the Phillies. I'm not sure either of those teams have the kind of MLB ready bat for trade that the Sox would want. The Cubs would also be an option, but I'm not sure what kind of salary they want to take on-- same with the Cardinals.


I agree, but Papelbon still has value in arbitration over his next couple years. If he could be used as a cog for a really big bat, then trading him would probably be worth it. I'm just not sure who that bat would be and if Papelbon would be enough or if you'd get the usual untouchable names thrown in to the discussion.


The Nationals. Adam Dunn is expendable, and the bullpen is here is the fucking worst.


Problem with that is Dunn would have to DH and the Sox are already stuck with a left handed DH. Plus, I think it would take a lot more than Dunn. Maybe if they take Ortiz or Lowell as well.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby The Long Dick of the Law » 14 Oct 2009, 13:00

ONTB wrote:
nasty nova wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:
ONTB wrote:
Frank the Tank wrote:Yesterday Jackie McMullen (yes, I know, take with a grain of salt) said on Mike & Mike that she things the Red Sox may explore a Papelbon trade for a big bat because they fear his long-term cost and the potential drop-off that most closers have. I wonder what they could get for him. I'm not anxious to see the guy go, but I can see how it might be the right play.


Frank,

I'm racking my brain trying to think about a team that would want to bring Papelbon in and likely give him a 4 year contract. I don't think you trade for him without that in mind. I really can't think of anyone other than the Yankees if Rivera walks away this off season for some reason and the Phillies. I'm not sure either of those teams have the kind of MLB ready bat for trade that the Sox would want. The Cubs would also be an option, but I'm not sure what kind of salary they want to take on-- same with the Cardinals.


I agree, but Papelbon still has value in arbitration over his next couple years. If he could be used as a cog for a really big bat, then trading him would probably be worth it. I'm just not sure who that bat would be and if Papelbon would be enough or if you'd get the usual untouchable names thrown in to the discussion.


The Nationals. Adam Dunn is expendable, and the bullpen is here is the fucking worst.


Problem with that is Dunn would have to DH and the Sox are already stuck with a left handed DH. Plus, I think it would take a lot more than Dunn. Maybe if they take Ortiz or Lowell as well.

If the Nats want to build to anything they shouldn't trade Dunn, at least not yet (maybe at the deadline if they're completely awful again and they can't extend his contract). They've got him locked in at a low rate for someone of his skill it's basically the one thing you can point to that the Nats front office has done that is good. If you could trade Paps for Dunn I'd do it in a heart beat. He can play 1st and you move Youk to third and platoon Lowell/Papi at DH. Give Dunn days off and let him DH--Youk to 1st, Lowell to 3rd. And if Jason Bay leaves he's no where near great but he's no worse than Manny in the OF so he could play there.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby ONTB » 14 Oct 2009, 20:05

Dunn can't play first base. He's awful. He'd be fine in left and a great addition to the line-up. I still don't think the Sox would give up Papelbon for Dunn straight up.
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Re: The Official Jon Papelbon Might Suck Thread

Postby The Long Dick of the Law » 14 Oct 2009, 20:18

ONTB wrote:Dunn can't play first base. He's awful. He'd be fine in left and a great addition to the line-up. I still don't think the Sox would give up Papelbon for Dunn straight up.

He can and has, he's no Youk or Texiera there but he wouldn't be as bad as Papi there either and more than makes up for it at the plate.
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