DeadSpin

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Re: DeadSpin

Postby MisterTambourineMan » 28 Mar 2017, 11:57

At What Age Would Barry Bonds Finally Be The Worst Hitter In Baseball?

Posting this because this comment needs to be shared:

Julio Franco hit .300/.376/.444 in his age-42 season in 101 PAs, whiles Bonds hit .276/.480/.565 in his age-42 season in 477 PAs. That means Bonds was approximately 28% better than Franco in both OBP and SLG in almost 5x the plate appearances. For their careers, Franco was a .298/.365/.417 hitter while Bonds was a .298/.444/.607 hitter. That means Bonds was approximately 22% better in OBP and 46% better in SLG. In his age-48 season, Franco hit .222/.321/.289. That was a decline of 15% in OBP and a decline of 35% in SLG.

Assuming the same rate of decline for Bonds and given their career numbers, if we extrapolate out Franco’s rate of decline for another four years to come up with Bonds’ expected age-52 seasons, we should expect Bonds to hit .325/.490/.630 with 78 HRs because the man put up a combined line of .349/.559/.809 with an average of 52 HRs per season during his age 36-39 seasons and prediction models do not apply to him.



And as per the collusion argument that ensued in the comments, no collusion on no team signing Bonds. I mean, well, yeah, obviously collusion, but not stated collusion; just the garden variety "ehhhhhhhhh I'd rather not deal with it" type of group think *sideeyes Ray Rice*. But Bonds absolutely should've/could've played at least one more year.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby The Long Dick of the Law » 28 Mar 2017, 12:20

MisterTambourineMan wrote:At What Age Would Barry Bonds Finally Be The Worst Hitter In Baseball?

Posting this because this comment needs to be shared:

Julio Franco hit .300/.376/.444 in his age-42 season in 101 PAs, whiles Bonds hit .276/.480/.565 in his age-42 season in 477 PAs. That means Bonds was approximately 28% better than Franco in both OBP and SLG in almost 5x the plate appearances. For their careers, Franco was a .298/.365/.417 hitter while Bonds was a .298/.444/.607 hitter. That means Bonds was approximately 22% better in OBP and 46% better in SLG. In his age-48 season, Franco hit .222/.321/.289. That was a decline of 15% in OBP and a decline of 35% in SLG.

Assuming the same rate of decline for Bonds and given their career numbers, if we extrapolate out Franco’s rate of decline for another four years to come up with Bonds’ expected age-52 seasons, we should expect Bonds to hit .325/.490/.630 with 78 HRs because the man put up a combined line of .349/.559/.809 with an average of 52 HRs per season during his age 36-39 seasons and prediction models do not apply to him.



And as per the collusion argument that ensued in the comments, no collusion on no team signing Bonds. I mean, well, yeah, obviously collusion, but not stated collusion; just the garden variety "ehhhhhhhhh I'd rather not deal with it" type of group think *sideeyes Ray Rice*. But Bonds absolutely should've/could've played at least one more year.

Same kind of "collusion" with Kaep right now, if you're not raking/firing darts, no one's putting up with the headaches, especially when there was plenty evidence (or hearsay in Kaep's case) of assholishness/questions of work ethic/etc.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby MisterTambourineMan » 28 Mar 2017, 12:27

The Long Dick of the Law wrote:
MisterTambourineMan wrote:At What Age Would Barry Bonds Finally Be The Worst Hitter In Baseball?

Posting this because this comment needs to be shared:

Julio Franco hit .300/.376/.444 in his age-42 season in 101 PAs, whiles Bonds hit .276/.480/.565 in his age-42 season in 477 PAs. That means Bonds was approximately 28% better than Franco in both OBP and SLG in almost 5x the plate appearances. For their careers, Franco was a .298/.365/.417 hitter while Bonds was a .298/.444/.607 hitter. That means Bonds was approximately 22% better in OBP and 46% better in SLG. In his age-48 season, Franco hit .222/.321/.289. That was a decline of 15% in OBP and a decline of 35% in SLG.

Assuming the same rate of decline for Bonds and given their career numbers, if we extrapolate out Franco’s rate of decline for another four years to come up with Bonds’ expected age-52 seasons, we should expect Bonds to hit .325/.490/.630 with 78 HRs because the man put up a combined line of .349/.559/.809 with an average of 52 HRs per season during his age 36-39 seasons and prediction models do not apply to him.



And as per the collusion argument that ensued in the comments, no collusion on no team signing Bonds. I mean, well, yeah, obviously collusion, but not stated collusion; just the garden variety "ehhhhhhhhh I'd rather not deal with it" type of group think *sideeyes Ray Rice*. But Bonds absolutely should've/could've played at least one more year.

Same kind of "collusion" with Kaep right now, if you're not raking/firing darts, no one's putting up with the headaches, especially when there was plenty evidence (or hearsay in Kaep's case) of assholishness/questions of work ethic/etc.



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Re: DeadSpin

Postby SouthernYokel » 28 Mar 2017, 13:55

here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby Briandong79 » 28 Mar 2017, 13:59

SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby the cheese » 28 Mar 2017, 14:02

Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby mj3528 » 28 Mar 2017, 14:05

the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby MisterTambourineMan » 28 Mar 2017, 14:07

mj3528 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.


I think there's a 25% chance AP never plays again. Or he realizes his contract demands are asinine.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby the cheese » 28 Mar 2017, 14:08

MisterTambourineMan wrote:
mj3528 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.


I think there's a 25% chance AP never plays again. Or he realizes his contract demands are asinine.


If Stephen Jones hadn't ripped the control of football decisions away from Jerruh he'd be a Cowboy by now.

Or if, you know, he'd addressed the one gaping weakness in his game at any point over the last 13 years.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby Briandong79 » 28 Mar 2017, 14:18

the cheese wrote:
MisterTambourineMan wrote:
mj3528 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.


I think there's a 25% chance AP never plays again. Or he realizes his contract demands are asinine.


If Stephen Jones hadn't ripped the control of football decisions away from Jerruh he'd be a Cowboy by now.

Or if, you know, he'd addressed the one gaping weakness in his game at any point over the last 13 years.


I assume you're referring to pass catching? At this point I think it's more that it's established he absolutely can't run out of the shotgun effectively, and that's 90% of the NFL now.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby the cheese » 28 Mar 2017, 14:20

Briandong79 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
MisterTambourineMan wrote:
mj3528 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.


I think there's a 25% chance AP never plays again. Or he realizes his contract demands are asinine.


If Stephen Jones hadn't ripped the control of football decisions away from Jerruh he'd be a Cowboy by now.

Or if, you know, he'd addressed the one gaping weakness in his game at any point over the last 13 years.


I assume you're referring to pass catching? At this point I think it's more that it's established he absolutely can't run out of the shotgun effectively, and that's 90% of the NFL now.


Shit, two weaknesses, although screw pro teams that try to run out of the shotgun. Line up in the I like men, damn it.

Three really, because I was thinking pass catching and pass blocking as one thing. He's not useless on 3rd and long, but pretty damn close with 10 years of miles on the tires.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby mj3528 » 28 Mar 2017, 14:22

the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
MisterTambourineMan wrote:
mj3528 wrote:
the cheese wrote:
Briandong79 wrote:
SouthernYokel wrote:here's the thing about kaep though: Greg Hardy - (oh but hardy is better) - six sacks.


The Cowboys were REALLY desperate for pass rushers though, and they got quite a bit of shit for it and he's currently unsigned, so he's still part of the "if your talent outweighs the headache, you'll be fine" equation.


That, and his contract was a total flyer. He got 1mm for every game he played, IIRC, with no obligation to the team if he got cut or missed a game.

RGIII keeps getting work, and they have similar styles/records/injury histories.


It will be interesting to see if anyone signs RGIII this year. He didn't play a lot last year since he was injured naturally, but when he played he was really bad.


I think there's a 25% chance AP never plays again. Or he realizes his contract demands are asinine.


If Stephen Jones hadn't ripped the control of football decisions away from Jerruh he'd be a Cowboy by now.

Or if, you know, he'd addressed the one gaping weakness in his game at any point over the last 13 years.


I assume you're referring to pass catching? At this point I think it's more that it's established he absolutely can't run out of the shotgun effectively, and that's 90% of the NFL now.


Shit, two weaknesses, although screw pro teams that try to run out of the shotgun. Line up in the I like men, damn it.

Three really, because I was thinking pass catching and pass blocking as one thing. He's not useless on 3rd and long, but pretty damn close with 10 years of miles on the tires.


I at first thought you meant his fumbling, but I guess that is a more recent malady.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby MisterTambourineMan » 28 Mar 2017, 14:22

Pass catching, running out of shotgun, pass blocking, FUCKING FUMBLING.....yeah, APs got a couple holes in addition to being a 32 year old war horse with several severe injuries and twenty other pounds of baggage.

Arguably an all-time top 5 RB when going downhill.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby the cheese » 28 Mar 2017, 14:25

MisterTambourineMan wrote:Pass catching, running out of shotgun, pass blocking, FUCKING FUMBLING.....yeah, APs got a couple holes in addition to being a 32 year old war horse with several severe injuries and twenty other pounds of baggage.

Arguably an all-time top 5 RB when going downhill.


Barry Sanders if Barry was a 6'2" 220lb monster human, playing behind a worse line with a succession of even worse QBs throwing to terrible receivers for an organization that couldn't stop tripping over its dick. And if Barry beat his eight illegitimate children.
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Re: DeadSpin

Postby MisterTambourineMan » 28 Mar 2017, 14:28

the cheese wrote:
MisterTambourineMan wrote:Pass catching, running out of shotgun, pass blocking, FUCKING FUMBLING.....yeah, APs got a couple holes in addition to being a 32 year old war horse with several severe injuries and twenty other pounds of baggage.

Arguably an all-time top 5 RB when going downhill.


Barry Sanders if Barry was a 6'2" 220lb monster human, playing behind a worse line with a succession of even worse QBs throwing to terrible receivers for an organization that couldn't stop tripping over its dick. And if Barry beat his eight illegitimate children.


Point of order - we had a good line that one year we had a good QB and Harvin and Sidney Rice (full circle yokel!). And Barry was better.

Otherwise, yes you are correct.
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